{"id":1554,"date":"2016-10-28T14:35:28","date_gmt":"2016-10-28T14:35:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/?page_id=1554"},"modified":"2016-10-28T14:35:28","modified_gmt":"2016-10-28T14:35:28","slug":"predictions-1998","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/predictions-1998\/","title":{"rendered":"Predictions – 1998"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here are my pre-season predictions for the 1998 Major League Baseball Standings. The list contains the teams in predicted order of finish and the number of predicted wins submitted to Doug Massey’s rec.sport.baseball prediction contest.(with apologies for the careless mathematical error) <\/span><\/p>\n

                   NATIONAL LEAGUE\r\n         WEST           CENTRAL       EAST\r\n       Padres       90  Astros    86  Braves   89\r\n       Dodgers      89  Cardinals 84  Mets     86\r\n       Giants       86  Brewers   81  Expos    83\r\n       Rockies      82  Pirates   79  Marlins  81\r\n       Diamondbacks 72  Cubs      73  Phillies 66\r\n                        Reds      69\r\n\r\n                   AMERICAN LEAGUE\r\n         WEST          CENTRAL       EAST\r\n       Mariners  89    Indians   88  Yankees    98\r\n       Rangers   85    White Sox 83  Red Sox    91\r\n       Athletics 76    Tigers    75  Blue Jays  88\r\n       Angels    75    Royals    71  Orioles    86\r\n                       Twins     66  Devil Rays 65\r\n\r\n\r\nWild Card: NL: Dodgers      AL Red Sox\r\nWorld Series: Yankees over Padres\r\n<\/pre>\n
I think that the most likely teams to drop by 10 or more games from last year are the Marlins, Orioles and Braves.
\nThe NL West seems likely to be the tightest of the five-team divisions, with the Diamondbacks having an outside shot at 4th place if they are lucky enough to get top performances from their starters and one of the four teams above them experiences a collapse. In the Central, the Astros and the Cardinals will probably separate from the rest of the division. In the East, the Braves should consider themselves lucky if Galarraga matches McGriff’s production of the last couple of years. A major offensive collapse is not unlikely. Only the Braves pitching will save them, and it’s not out of the question that this is the year that it starts to falter. The fact that the Marlins seem to think that Josh Booty will be an adequate temporary thirdbaseman makes me doubt their other talent assessments.
\nIn the AL West, if the Mariners trade Randy Johnson, the difference between top and bottom in the division might by only about 5 games. Anyone could win this division. No-one looks vey strong in the Central, though it’s possible that one of the teams could break out – most likely the Indians. The Yankees acquisition of Knobloch does seem to put them on top of the other teams in the majors. I suspect that the Orioles are due for a fall. Davy Johnson did a great job with role players during the last couple of years. I’m not convinced that Ray Miller can do the same with the role players that haven’t been replaced by ex-stars who will probably be too old to be truly productive.<\/p>\n
Some end of May comments<\/i>: Galarraga is going to outperform my expectation for 1998, but I still expect his production to collapse soon. It looks like I should have paid more attention to the Marlins ability to evaluate young talent. I was expecting them to be closer to .500, but their talent evaluation is apparently keeping even further down. Their recent trades probably won’t help in the short term either. Here are some win projections based on team record through May 31:<\/p>\n
                 NATIONAL LEAGUE\r\n         WEST          CENTRAL       EAST\r\n    Padres       93   Astros    90  Braves   98\r\n    Dodgers      79   Cardinals 83  Mets     91\r\n    Giants       88   Brewers   84  Expos    68\r\n    Rockies      74   Pirates   78  Marlins  63\r\n    Diamondbacks 62   Cubs      87  Phillies 78\r\n                      Reds      78\r\n\r\n                 AMERICAN LEAGUE\r\n         WEST         CENTRAL      EAST\r\n    Mariners  78     Indians   90  Yankees   102\r\n    Rangers   91     White Sox 73  Red Sox    89\r\n    Athletics 73     Tigers    73  Blue Jays  82\r\n    Angels    82     Royals    72  Orioles    77\r\n                     Twins     77  Devil Rays 76\r\n\r\n<\/pre>\n
The two standard deivation estimate for these is +\/- 8.5. (ranging from 8.35 for the Reds to 9.24 for the Yankees)<\/p>\n
The Yankee correspondant for The Sporting News<\/span><\/u><\/a>, in his 1\/4-season review, suggested that the Yankees were likely to win 110 games. The model that I’ve used to preject the win totals suggests that there is a 7.8% chance of the Yankees winning at least 110 games, a .46% chance of winning at least 116 games and a 69% chance of winning at least 100 games. The model also suggests there is a 1.2% probability that one of the other teams in the division will win at least 100 games and that the Yankees have a 95.7% probability to win the division outright and a 1.1% chance of tying for the title. The RedSox have a 2.9% chance to win the division and 1.0% chance of tying, Toronto 0.17% and 0.10%, Baltimore .012% and .009%, and Tampa Bay .007% and .006%.<\/p>\n
Some All-Star break comments<\/i><\/span>: Here are some win projections based on team record through May 31:<\/p>\n
                 NATIONAL LEAGUE\r\n         WEST          CENTRAL       EAST\r\n    Padres       99   Astros    94  Braves   102\r\n    Dodgers      80   Cardinals 77  Mets      85\r\n    Giants       91   Brewers   82  Expos     68\r\n    Rockies      71   Pirates   75  Marlins   65\r\n    Diamondbacks 61   Cubs      87  Phillies  82\r\n                      Reds      73\r\n\r\n                 AMERICAN LEAGUE\r\n         WEST         CENTRAL      EAST\r\n    Mariners  71     Indians   91  Yankees   111\r\n    Rangers   87     White Sox 70  Red Sox    95\r\n    Athletics 78     Tigers    70  Blue Jays  84\r\n    Angels    89     Royals    74  Orioles    73\r\n                     Twins     77  Devil Rays 68\r\n\r\n<\/pre>\n
The two standard deivation estimate for these is +\/- 8.5. (ranging from 5.30 for the Reds to 6.11 for the Yankees)<\/p>\n
The Yankees now figure to be a slightly better than 50-50 shot to win 110 games.<\/p>\n