{"id":1661,"date":"2016-10-28T18:13:54","date_gmt":"2016-10-28T18:13:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/?page_id=1661"},"modified":"2016-10-28T18:14:51","modified_gmt":"2016-10-28T18:14:51","slug":"do-long-extra-inning-games-wear-teams-out","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/do-long-extra-inning-games-wear-teams-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Do long extra-inning games wear teams out?"},"content":{"rendered":"

On August 9 and 10 of 2014 nineteen-inning games were played. This renewed memories of the Pirates dismal 12-29 record after their 19 inning victory at St. Louis August 19, 2012 and caused some speculation that the Red Sox, Angels, Tigers, and Jays might suffer from the load to their relief corps and fatigue. I’ve been meaning to take a look at this for a while so here’s what I have so far. (the summary is that I found no fatigue effect) I looked at the Retrosheet games 1914-2013 and took only games in which the teams had at least 10 games played before and after the extra inning game. Then I found the team’s W-L pct that year, the team’s record in the 10 games before, and the team’s record in the 10 games after.<\/p>\n

For all 27543 such extra inning games the season average percentage was .500
\nthe W-L before was 137334-137210 .500 [there were 886 ties in the 275430 games]
\nthe W-L after was 137247-137347 .500 [836 ties]<\/p>\n

When I looked at exceptionally long games (143 game longer than 18 innings)
\nI found season .500 before .507 after .489
\nThe before was 713-693 the after was 697-728 so they differ by only 0.96 standard deviations, not statistically significant.<\/p>\n

For moderately long games [14-18 innings] the difference was smaller, 12526-12512-192 .500 before and 12518-12625-87 .498 after.<\/p>\n

For games of each length 10 through 22 innings<\/p>\n

Inn #G season before after\r\n10 12154 .500 .499 .499\r\n11 06841 .500 .500 .501\r\n12 03752 .500 .500 .499\r\n13 02130 .502 .502 .502\r\n14 01232 .503 .501 .499\r\n15 00619 .497 .504 .491\r\n16 00366 .502 .502 .499\r\n17 00182 .504 .501 .513\r\n18 00124 .495 .473 .497\r\n19 00066 .517 .518 .486\r\n20 00030 .495 .502 .497\r\n21 00018 .489 .489 .492\r\n22 00018 .475 .480 .475\r\n<\/pre>\n
Some #G totals are odd because one of the teams had fewer than 10 games before or after the extra inning game.<\/p>\n
I also broke these down into winning and losing teams. The team quality and before-and-after breakdowns are<\/p>\n
Wins 13558 .510    68508-66653-419 .507     68526-66652-402 .507\r\nLoss 13552 .491    66654-68452-414 .493     66621-68512-387 .493\r\nTies 00433 .499    02172-02105-053 .508     02100-02183-047 .490\r\n\r\nFor the games lasting more than 18 innings the breakdown is \r\nWins 65 .519    318-329 .491 326-322 .503  (t-score 0.42)\r\nLoss 65 .480    332-312 .516 305-342 .471  (t-score 1.62)\r\nTies 13 .510    066-062 .516 066-064 .508\r\n<\/pre>\n
Winning teams, before and after games lasting 10 innings through 20 innings
\nThe t-score is the number of standard errors that the team dropped after the long game. (if there is no difference then roughly 1 in 20 t-scores would be bigger than 2)<\/p>\n
Inn #G season     before           after\r\n10 6010 .508  30371-29530 .507 30366-29570 .507 (t-> 0.13)\r\n11 3381 .510  17022-16699 .505 17176-16522 .510 (t-> -1.28)\r\n12 1856 .508  09471-09033 .512 09342-09160 .505 (t-> 1.33)\r\n13 1037 .511  05225-05216 .505 05232-05098 .506 (t-> -0.87)\r\n14 0595 .514  03004-02927 .506 03015-02926 .507 (t-> -0.11)\r\n15 0298 .506  01499-01467 .505 01455-01514 .490 (t-> 1.18)\r\n16 0171 .506  00864-00843 .506 00831-00875 .487 (t-> 1.11)\r\n17 0086 .519  00444-00415 .517 00479-00380 .558 (t-> -1.69)\r\n18 0059 .503  00290-00298 .493 00304-00285 .516 (t-> -0.79)\r\n19 0029 .531  00145-00143 .503 00141-00149 .486 (t-> 0.42)\r\n20 0015 .505  00069-00081 .460 00077-00073 .513 (t-> -0.93)\r\n<\/pre>\n
Losing teams, before and after games lasting 10 innings through 20 innings<\/p>\n
Inn #G season     before           after\r\n10 6012 .489  29599-30343 .494 29531-30424 .493 (t-> 0.43)\r\n11 3366 .491  16510-17065 .492 16558-16996 .493 (t-> -0.45)\r\n12 1849 .491  08981-09448 .487 09073-09369 .492 (t-> -0.89)\r\n13 1050 .492  05244-05216 .501 05207-05271 .497 (t-> 0.64)\r\n14 0595 .492  02958-02977 .498 02923-03008 .493 (t-> 0.61)\r\n15 0297 .490  01496-01463 .506 01477-01481 .499 (t-> 0.48)\r\n16 0171 .494  00842-00854 .496 00859-00844 .504 (t-> -0.46)\r\n17 0088 .489  00433-00445 .493 00408-00468 .466 (t-> 1.15)\r\n18 0059 .485  00259-00329 .440 00280-00309 .475 (t-> -1.20)\r\n19 0029 .503  00152-00135 .530 00140-00148 .486 (t-> 1.04)\r\n20 0015 .486  00082-00067 .550 00072-00078 .480 (t-> 1.22)\r\n<\/pre>\n
counting the number of t-scores for each of the ranges (-2,-1.501),(-1.5,-1.001),(-1,-.501),(-.5,-.001),(0,.499),(.5,.999),(1,1.499),(1.5,1.999) gives<\/p>\n
-2.0 W\r\n-1.5 WL\r\n-1.0 WWWL\r\n-0.5 WLL\r\n+0.0 WWLL\r\n+0.5 LL\r\n+1.0 WWWLLL\r\n+1.5 \r\n<\/pre>\n
The distribution does not look very different from what a no-effect random set of data would look like so if there is an effect it seems that it’s small enough that more than a few thousand games are required to tease it out.<\/p>\n
For games of at least 19 innings the results in the 143 games before and after. i.e. in the game before the extra-inning game (-01) the 143 teams won 69 games, lost 70, and tied 4. In the games immediately following the extra inning game (+01) the 143 teams won 68 and lost 75.<\/p>\n
-10  68-75-0 .476\r\n-09  69-74-0 .483\r\n-08  81-61-1 .570\r\n-07  72-70-1 .507\r\n-06  68-74-1 .479\r\n-05  69-73-1 .486\r\n-04  75-68-0 .524\r\n-03  78-63-2 .553\r\n-02  67-75-1 .472\r\n-01  69-70-4 .496\r\nLong extra-inning game\r\n+01  68-75-0 .476\r\n+02  69-74-0 .483\r\n+03  81-61-1 .570\r\n+04  72-70-1 .507\r\n+05  68-74-1 .479\r\n+06  69-73-1 .486\r\n+07  75-68-0 .524\r\n+08  78-63-2 .553\r\n+09  67-75-1 .472\r\n+10  69-70-4 .496\r\n<\/pre>\n
With no effect we should see 2\/3 of the results within -12 to +12 games over .500 and 95% within 24 games of .500. the actual tallies are 16 of 20 and 20 of 20.<\/p>\n
In more recent seasons it has become more common to use several relief pitchers during the first 9 innings, meaning that bullpen might get more stressed in long games.
\nRestricting the data to the 20 year period 1994-2013 gives<\/p>\n
Games of at least 19 innings:\r\n20 teams expected W-L .509   Before 93-107 .465  After 90-100 .450\r\nWinning teams 10, .523    Before 37-63 .370  After 47-53 .470\r\nLosing teams  10, .495    Before 56-44 .560  After 43-57 .430\r\n<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n
Games 14-18 innings\r\n543 teams expected W-L .501  Before 2677-2753 .493  After 2726-2703-1 .502\r\nWinning teams 271, .505      Before 1339-1371 .494  After 1360-1350 .502\r\nLosing teams  272, .498      Before 1338-1382 .492  After 1366-1353-1 .502\r\n<\/pre>\n
For games of each length 10 through 22 innings<\/p>\n
Inn #G season before after\r\n10 3300 .500 .500 .496\r\n11 1676 .501 .497 .498\r\n12 0928 .500 .493 .502\r\n13 0513 .503 .511 .498\r\n14 0294 .504 .501 .509\r\n15 0124 .498 .481 .494\r\n16 0060 .501 .470 .497\r\n17 0033 .498 .506 .503\r\n18 0032 .498 .497 .481\r\n19 0012 .532 .450 .433\r\n20 0006 .491 .483 .567\r\n21 0\r\n22 0002 .423 .500 .200\r\n<\/pre>\n
The team quality and before-and-after breakdowns are<\/p>\n
Wins 3492 .508    17600-17319-1 .504    17545-17366-9 .503\r\nLoss 3486 .493    17193-17665-2 .493    17187-17664-9 .493\r\nTies 0002 .611    00014-00006-0 .700    00010-00010-0 .500\r\n\r\nFor the games lasting more than 18 innings the breakdown is \r\nWins 10 .523    37-63 .370   47-53 .470 (t-score 1.44)\r\nLoss 10 .495    56-44 .560   43-57 .430  (t-score 1.85)\r\nTies 0\r\n<\/pre>\n
Winning teams, before and after games lasting 10 innings through 20 innings The t-score is the number of standard errors that the team dropped after the long game. (if there is no difference then roughly 1 in 20 t-scores would be bigger than 2)<\/p>\n
10 1650 .507   8353-8146 .506   8225-8271 .499 (t-> 1.39)\r\n11 0840 .509   4201-4199 .500   4275-4124 .509 (t-> -1.15)\r\n12 0466 .508   2364-2296 .507   2386-2272 .512 (t-> -0.48)\r\n13 0255 .510   1306-1244 .512   1252-1296 .491 (t-> 1.48)\r\n14 0147 .507   0750-0720 .510   0743-0727 .505 (t-> 0.26)\r\n15 0062 .504   0277-0343 .447   0298-0322 .481 (t-> -1.20)\r\n16 0030 .502   0144-0156 .480   0149-0151 .497 (t-> -0.41)\r\n17 0016 .511   0085-0075 .531   0082-0078 .513 (t-> 0.34)\r\n18 0016 .497   0083-0077 .519   0088-0072 .550 (t-> -0.56)\r\n19 0006 .563   0023-0037 .383   0025-0035 .417 (t-> -0.37)\r\n20 0003 .465   0009-0021 .300   0020-0010 .667 (t-> -3.05)\r\n<\/pre>\n
Losing teams, before and after games lasting 10 innings through 20 innings<\/p>\n
10 1648 .492   8140-8339 .494   8127-8349 .493 (t-> 0.13)\r\n11 0836 .493   4129-4230 .494   4073-4286 .487 (t-> 0.87)\r\n12 0462 .492   2214-2406 .479   2274-2343 .493 (t-> -1.28)\r\n13 0258 .496   1316-1264 .510   1304-1276 .505 (t-> 0.33)\r\n14 0147 .501   0722-0748 .491   0752-0718 .512 (t-> -1.11)\r\n15 0062 .492   0320-0300 .516   0315-0305 .508 (t-> 0.28)\r\n16 0030 .499   0138-0162 .460   0149-0150 .498 (t-> -0.94)\r\n17 0017 .485   0082-0088 .482   0084-0086 .494 (t-> -0.22)\r\n18 0016 .498   0076-0084 .475   0066-0094 .413 (t-> 1.13)\r\n19 0006 .502   0031-0029 .517   0027-0033 .450 (t-> 0.73)\r\n20 0003 .516   0020-0010 .667   0014-0016 .467 (t-> 1.60)\r\n<\/pre>\n
For games of at least 19 innings the results in the 20 games before and after<\/p>\n
-10  10-10 .500\r\n-09  10-10 .500\r\n-08  12-08 .600\r\n-07  10-10 .500\r\n-06  07-13 .350\r\n-05  08-12 .400\r\n-04  09-11 .450\r\n-03  09-11 .450\r\n-02  08-12 .400\r\n-01  10-10 .500\r\nLong extra-inning game\r\n+01  10-10 .500\r\n+02  10-10 .500\r\n+03  12-08 .600\r\n+04  10-10 .500\r\n+05  07-13 .350\r\n+06  08-12 .400\r\n+07  09-11 .450\r\n+08  09-11 .450\r\n+09  08-12 .400\r\n+10  10-10 .500\r\n<\/pre>\n
After playing 19 innings August 9 the Red Sox won 4 in a row. Before the game the Red Sox were 3-7. Since the game they are 5-5.
\nThe Angels were 4-6 before the game and 8-2 after.
\nAfter playing 19 innings August 10 the Tigers lost two more. Before the game the Tigers were 5-5. Since the game, 5-5.
\nThe Jays were 4-6 in the ten games before the marathon. After game they lost 4 in a row and have a record of 2-7.
\nThe ten games win-loss strings before and after for these teams are
\nBos LLLWLLLWLW<\/span><\/tt>, Lost 5-4 on road, WWWWLWLLLL<\/tt>
\n<\/span> LAA LWWLWWLLLL<\/span><\/tt>, Won 5-4 at home, LWWWWLWWWW<\/tt>
\n<\/span> Det LWWWLWLLWL<\/span><\/tt>, Lost 6-5 on road, LLWWLWLWWL<\/tt>
\n<\/span> Tor WWLLLLWLLW<\/span><\/tt>, Won 6-5 at home, LLLLWLLWLW<\/tt><\/span><\/p>\n
The fours teams were 16-24 .400 before their 19 inning games and so far are 21-19 .525 after.
\nWhat are some other ways to look at the data? e-mail<\/span><\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n
My baseball page<\/span><\/u><\/a><\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On August 9 and 10 of 2014 nineteen-inning games were played. This renewed memories of the Pirates dismal 12-29 record after their 19 inning victory at St. Louis August 19, 2012 and caused some speculation that the Red Sox, Angels, Tigers, and Jays might suffer from the load to their relief corps and fatigue. I’ve been meaning to take a…<\/p>\n
Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":812,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1661","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/812"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1661"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1661\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1673,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1661\/revisions\/1673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}