{"id":1679,"date":"2016-10-28T18:40:15","date_gmt":"2016-10-28T18:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/?page_id=1679"},"modified":"2016-10-28T18:54:21","modified_gmt":"2016-10-28T18:54:21","slug":"do-unique-ballparks-provide-a-larger-than-normal-home-field-advantage","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/wordpress.rose-hulman.edu\/rickert\/do-unique-ballparks-provide-a-larger-than-normal-home-field-advantage\/","title":{"rendered":"Do unique ballparks provide a larger than normal home field advantage?"},"content":{"rendered":"
Last updated August 15, 1997<\/h6>\n

In Rob Neyer’s<\/span><\/u><\/a> July 21, 1997 Chin Muzak<\/span><\/u><\/a> he observes that both the Rockies and Burt Shotton’s Phillies had extreme Home\/Road splits while playing in extreme hitters parks and asks “Can it be coincidental that they happen to play in perhaps the best hitter’s parks ever?”<\/i> Rob also had followup columns discussing letters from Guy Tyler on August 8<\/span><\/u><\/a> and from Chris Aberson and John Rickert<\/span><\/u><\/a> (me) on August 15. A further followup from Tim Ruane was printed August 19. Here’s a start at looking at the question.<\/p>\n

Hitter’s Parks<\/b><\/h3>\n

I went through the latest edition of Total Baseball<\/span><\/u><\/a> and listed teams with batters park factors of 105 or greater. (i.e. the park inflates offense by 4.5% or more) I then found all teams that maintained such a large park factor for five or more seasons. Since several teams dipped slightly below 105 for a season and came back, I expended the list to also include teams with 6 or more seasons with only one year of batters park factor below 105.<\/p>\n

I then used the Baseball Encyclopedia to find the records at home and on the road for each team and compiled the results. A summary is in the table below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Team<\/th>\nYears<\/th>\nW-L<\/th>\nPct.<\/th>\nHome<\/th>\nRoad<\/th>\nDifference<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Red Sox<\/td>\n1989-94<\/td>\n462-463<\/td>\n.499<\/td>\n258-211 .550<\/td>\n204-252 .447<\/td>\n.103<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Braves<\/td>\n1983-92<\/td>\n749-865<\/td>\n.464<\/td>\n396-409 .492<\/td>\n353-456 .436<\/td>\n.056<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cubs<\/td>\n1983-91<\/td>\n714-737<\/td>\n.492<\/td>\n389-338 .535<\/td>\n325-399 .449<\/td>\n.086<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Red Sox<\/td>\n1964-84<\/td>\n1761-1574<\/td>\n.528<\/td>\n953-715 .571<\/td>\n808-859 .485<\/td>\n.086<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cubs<\/td>\n1976-80<\/td>\n379-431<\/td>\n.468<\/td>\n214-192 .527<\/td>\n165-239 .408<\/td>\n.119<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cubs<\/td>\n1967-73<\/td>\n592-533<\/td>\n.526<\/td>\n322-241 .572<\/td>\n270-292 .480<\/td>\n.092<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reds<\/td>\n1963-69<\/td>\n602-530<\/td>\n.532<\/td>\n327-238 .579<\/td>\n275-292 .485<\/td>\n.094<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cardinals<\/td>\n1959-65<\/td>\n587-522<\/td>\n.529<\/td>\n328-227 .591<\/td>\n259-295 .468<\/td>\n.123<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dodgers<\/td>\n1956-61<\/td>\n507-419<\/td>\n.548<\/td>\n267-196 .577<\/td>\n240-223 .518<\/td>\n.059<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Red Sox<\/td>\n1946-59<\/td>\n1193-963<\/td>\n.553<\/td>\n683-396 .633<\/td>\n510-567 .474<\/td>\n.159<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tigers<\/td>\n1938-46<\/td>\n749-636<\/td>\n.541<\/td>\n412-285 .591<\/td>\n337-351 .490<\/td>\n.101<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cardinals<\/td>\n1938-42<\/td>\n450-314<\/td>\n.589<\/td>\n241-145 .624<\/td>\n209-169 .553<\/td>\n.071<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Phillies<\/td>\n1929-37<\/td>\n562-814<\/td>\n.408<\/td>\n320-359 .471<\/td>\n242-455 .347<\/td>\n.124<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Phillies<\/td>\n1918-26<\/td>\n503-826<\/td>\n.378<\/td>\n266-391 .405<\/td>\n237-435 .353<\/td>\n.052<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Browns<\/td>\n1921-26<\/td>\n466-453<\/td>\n.507<\/td>\n263-200 .568<\/td>\n203-253 .445<\/td>\n.123<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Highlanders<\/td>\n1903-07<\/td>\n395-338<\/td>\n.539<\/td>\n213-153 .582<\/td>\n182-185 .496<\/td>\n.086<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TOTAL<\/td>\n<\/td>\n10,671-10,418<\/td>\n.506<\/td>\n5852-4696 .555<\/td>\n4819-5722 .457<\/td>\n.098<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The won-lost percentage for home teams for 1900-1995 was .542, so road teams W-L Pct. was .458 and the difference was .084.<\/p>\n

The overall road Pct. for the teams was .457, very close to a normal road percentage. If we decide that this means that the teams were overall average teams, then their home winning percentage should be .541. Instead, it was .555. If we assume that the teams were average teams, then the probability of deviating that far from the expected number of wins at home is approximately 0.9%, indicating that there probably is a small advantage for teams playing in extreme hitters parks.
\nOf course, an alternative explanation is that the teams were really slightly better than average, as was indicated by their overall .506 W-L pct. If this assumption is used then the teams would come out better at home (but only at the 17% confidence level) and worse on the road (also at a 17% level), however the results are not statistically significant.<\/p>\n

The likelihood of average teams deviating as far from .500 as .506(or farther) is roughly 25%. again, not an unreasonable occurance.
\nThere were also eight teams that played in offensive parks for four consecutive years, or four out of five years. They produced the following results:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Team<\/th>\nYears<\/th>\nW-L<\/th>\nPct.<\/th>\nHome<\/th>\nRoad<\/th>\nDifference<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Rockies<\/td>\n1993-96<\/td>\n280-305<\/td>\n.479<\/td>\n163-128 .560<\/td>\n117-177 .398<\/td>\n.162<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Braves<\/td>\n1976-79<\/td>\n266-380<\/td>\n.412<\/td>\n147-175 .457<\/td>\n119-205 .367<\/td>\n.090<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Braves<\/td>\n1970-73<\/td>\n304-335<\/td>\n.476<\/td>\n161-159 .503<\/td>\n143-176 .448<\/td>\n.055<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reds<\/td>\n1955-58<\/td>\n322-294<\/td>\n.523<\/td>\n182-126 .591<\/td>\n140-168 .455<\/td>\n.136<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Browns<\/td>\n1932-35<\/td>\n250-359<\/td>\n.411<\/td>\n130-171 .432<\/td>\n120-188 .390<\/td>\n.042<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Red Sox<\/td>\n1934-38<\/td>\n396-364<\/td>\n.521<\/td>\n226-153 .596<\/td>\n170-211 .446<\/td>\n.150<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Indians<\/td>\n1916-19<\/td>\n322-252<\/td>\n.561<\/td>\n169-114 .597<\/td>\n153-138 .526<\/td>\n.071<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reds<\/td>\n1902-05<\/td>\n311-274<\/td>\n.532<\/td>\n175-125 .583<\/td>\n136-149 .477<\/td>\n.106<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TOTAL<\/td>\n<\/td>\n2451-2563<\/td>\n.489<\/td>\n1353-1151 .540<\/td>\n1098-1412 .437<\/td>\n.103<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The `Best’ Hitter’s Parks<\/h4>\n

Here’s a list of the highest Batter Park Factors from Total Baseball:<\/p>\n