The Baseball Prospectus is comparing player projections made by individuals using their intuition and knowledge to make educated guesses to predict player performance to projections made by computer programs. A summary of the results from 1998 is available at their web site archives.
For 1999, they expanded the list of participants. This page lists my guesses for the 1999 performance levels of their list of players for you to laugh at.
Here are the hitters, projected BA/OBA/SLG followed by actual BA/OBA/SLG and the differnces between my predictions and the actual values:
Travis Lee .280 .370 .470 .237 .337 .363 .043 .033 .107 Tony Batista .275 .320 .470 .257 .335 .396 .018 -.015 .074 Matt Williams .260 .300 .460 .303 .344 .536 -.043 -.044 -.076 Jay Bell .260 .360 .420 .289 .374 .557 -.029 -.014 -.137 Steve Finley .250 .300 .425 .264 .336 .525 -.014 -.036 -.100 Javier Lopez .290 .330 .550 .317 .375 .533 -.027 -.045 .017 Ryan Klesko .280 .350 .500 .297 .376 .532 -.017 -.026 -.032 Bret Boone .250 .295 .375 .252 .310 .416 -.002 -.015 -.041 Walt Weiss .240 .350 .300 .226 .323 .315 .014 .027 -.015 Andruw Jones .280 .350 .540 .275 .365 .483 .005 -.015 .057 Brian Jordan .305 .350 .500 .283 .346 .465 .022 .004 .035 Mickey Morandini .290 .390 .375 .241 .319 .329 .049 .071 .046 Mark Grace .300 .400 .450 .309 .390 .481 -.009 .010 -.031 Henry Rodriguez .250 .310 .470 .304 .381 .544 -.054 -.071 -.074 Sammy Sosa .260 .315 .540 .288 .367 .635 -.028 -.052 -.095 Lance Johnson .270 .320 .370 .260 .332 .337 .010 -.012 .033 Sean Casey .310 .390 .490 .332 .399 .539 -.022 -.009 -.049 Barry Larkin .270 .365 .490 .293 .390 .420 -.023 -.025 .070 Greg Vaughn .220 .315 .400 .245 .347 .535 -.025 -.032 -.135 Todd Helton .320 .400 .550 .320 .395 .587 00 .005 -.037 Mike Lansing .300 .355 .460 .310 .344 .455 -.010 .011 .005 Neifi Perez .280 .320 .400 .280 .307 .403 00 .013 -.003 Daryl Hamilton .315 .400 .470 .315 .386 .422 00 .014 .048 Larry Walker .340 .420 .660 .379 .458 .710 -.039 -.038 -.050 Derrek Lee .280 .350 .480 .206 .263 .326 .074 .087 .154 Cliff Floyd .290 .355 .500 .303 .379 .518 -.013 -.024 -.018 Mark Kotsay .295 .375 .440 .271 .306 .402 .024 .069 .038 Mitch Melusky .295 .370 .470 .212 .316 .333 .083 .054 .137 Craig Biggio .310 .400 .490 .294 .386 .457 .016 .014 .033 Ken Caminiti .270 .360 .460 .286 .386 .476 -.016 -.026 -.016 Derek Bell .270 .325 .430 .236 .306 .350 .034 .019 .080 Adrian Beltre .280 .345 .460 .275 .352 .428 .005 -.007 .032 Gary Sheffield .325 .460 .590 .301 .407 .523 .024 .053 .067 Fernando Vina .285 .360 .390 .266 .339 .331 .019 .021 .059 Jeromy Burnitz .265 .350 .510 .270 .402 .561 -.005 -.052 -.051 Vlad Guerrero .320 .390 .570 .316 .378 .600 .004 .012 -.030 Rondell White .295 .360 .500 .312 .359 .505 -.017 .001 -.005 John Olerud .295 .395 .480 .298 .427 .463 -.003 -.032 .017 Mike Piazza .330 .430 .650 .303 .361 .575 .027 .069 .075 Edgardo Alfonzo .290 .375 .460 .304 .385 .502 -.014 -.010 -.042 Rickey Henderson .240 .360 .320 .315 .423 .466 -.075 -.063 -.146 Brian McRae .250 .350 .420 .221 .320 .349 .029 .030 .071 Marlon Anderson .250 .280 .380 .252 .292 .361 -.002 -.012 .019 Desi Relaford .250 .310 .370 .242 .322 .327 .008 -.012 .043 Doug Glanville .280 .330 .380 .325 .376 .457 -.045 -.046 -.077 Bob Abreu .280 .390 .450 .335 .446 .549 -.055 -.056 -.099 Jason Kendall .320 .410 .490 .332 .428 .511 -.012 -.018 -.021 Brian Giles .280 .415 .500 .315 .418 .614 -.035 -.003 -.114 Jose Guillen .280 .310 .450 .267 .321 .342 .013 -.011 .108 Tony Gwynn .305 .345 .490 .338 .381 .477 -.033 -.036 .013 Wally Joyner .295 .365 .420 .248 .363 .350 .047 .002 .070 Ellis Burks .250 .320 .450 .282 .394 .569 -.032 -.074 -.119 Barry Bonds .295 .440 .600 .262 .389 .617 .033 .051 -.017 Jeff Kent .260 .315 .480 .290 .366 .511 -.030 -.051 -.031 Bill Mueller .290 .390 .390 .290 .388 .362 00 .002 .028 Fernando Tatis .280 .340 .460 .298 .404 .553 -.018 -.064 -.093 Mark McGwire .270 .450 .650 .278 .424 .697 -.008 .026 -.047 J.D. Drew .290 .400 .530 .242 .340 .424 .048 .060 .106 Eric Davis .298 .360 .520 .257 .359 .403 .041 .001 .117 Ivan Rodriguez .325 .360 .500 .332 .356 .558 -.007 .004 -.058 Royce Clayton .280 .330 .370 .288 .346 .445 -.008 -.016 -.075 Tom Goodwin .295 .370 .340 .259 .324 .341 .036 .046 -.001 Juan Gonzalez .300 .345 .600 .326 .378 .601 -.026 -.033 -.001 Carlos Delgado .300 .400 .600 .272 .377 .571 .028 .023 .029 Alex Gonzalez .250 .300 .390 .292 .370 .416 -.042 -.070 -.026 Shannon Stewart .295 .400 .450 .304 .371 .411 -.009 .029 .039 Jose Cruz .260 .360 .460 .241 .358 .433 .019 .002 .027 Shawn Green .295 .350 .500 .309 .384 .588 -.014 -.034 -.088 Brad Ausmus .260 .320 .350 .275 .365 .415 -.015 -.045 -.065 Damion Easley .260 .320 .450 .266 .346 .434 -.006 -.026 .016 Brian Hunter .260 .300 .340 .232 .280 .301 .028 .020 .039 Juan Encarnacion .270 .320 .430 .255 .287 .450 .015 .033 -.020 Carlos Febles .275 .330 .420 .256 .336 .411 .019 -.006 .009 Johnny Damon .280 .345 .450 .307 .379 .477 -.027 -.034 -.027 David Ortiz .290 .370 .480 .000 .200 .000 .290 .170 .480 Marty Cordova .260 .335 .400 .285 .365 .464 -.025 -.030 -.064 Todd Walker .300 .365 .480 .279 .343 .397 .021 .022 .083 A.J. Hinch .260 .325 .400 .215 .260 .346 .045 .065 .054 Fred McGriff .270 .350 .420 .310 .405 .552 -.040 -.055 -.132 Miguel Cairo .270 .310 .375 .295 .335 .368 -.025 -.025 .007 Jose Canseco .240 .320 .550 .279 .369 .563 -.039 -.049 -.013 Mo Vaughn .315 .380 .600 .281 .358 .508 .034 .022 .092 Troy Glaus .275 .350 .475 .240 .331 .450 .035 .019 .025 Charles Johnson .250 .350 .470 .251 .340 .413 -.001 .010 .057 Delino Deshields .280 .365 .440 .264 .339 .364 .016 .026 .076 Will Clark .275 .355 .430 .303 .395 .482 -.028 -.040 -.052 Mike Bordick .230 .295 .360 .277 .334 .403 -.047 -.039 -.043 Albert Belle .305 .380 .625 .297 .400 .541 .008 -.020 .084 Jorge Posada .270 .370 .440 .245 .341 .401 .025 .029 .039 Chuck Knoblauch .300 .400 .450 .292 .393 .454 .008 .007 -.004 Scott Brosius .260 .330 .400 .247 .307 .414 .013 .023 -.014 Bernie Williams .330 .410 .550 .342 .435 .536 -.012 -.025 .014 Eric Chavez .290 .330 .500 .247 .333 .427 .043 -.003 .073 Ryan Christenson .265 .330 .380 .209 .305 .306 .056 .025 .074 Matt Stairs .290 .365 .515 .258 .366 .533 .032 -.001 -.018 Brady Anderson .255 .370 .450 .282 .404 .477 -.027 -.034 -.027 Jose Offerman .320 .410 .450 .294 .391 .435 .026 .019 .015 Darren Lewis .240 .315 .320 .240 .311 .309 00 .004 .011 Paul Konerko .280 .350 .470 .294 .352 .511 -.014 -.002 -.041 Mike Caruso .290 .325 .400 .250 .280 .297 .040 .045 .103 Frank Thomas .305 .430 .570 .305 .414 .471 00 .016 .099 Magglio Ordonez .275 .320 .420 .301 .349 .510 -.026 -.029 -.090 Roberto Alomar .330 .390 .485 .323 .422 .533 .007 -.032 -.048 Travis Fryman .280 .330 .440 .255 .309 .410 .025 .021 .030 Omar Vizquel .270 .345 .340 .333 .397 .436 -.063 -.052 -.096 Dean Palmer .250 .310 .480 .263 .339 .518 -.013 -.029 -.038 John Valentin .290 .380 .470 .253 .315 .398 .037 .065 .072 Troy O'Leary .300 .350 .475 .280 .343 .495 .020 .007 -.020 Carlos Beltran .260 .315 .450 .293 .337 .454 -.033 -.022 -.004 Jeremy Giambi .300 .390 .500 .285 .373 .368 .015 .017 .132
Assuming that I entered this years numbers correctly I get the following results for the 110 players:
My predicted average BA/OBP/SLG was .281/.356/.463, the actual was .278/.358/.456 so I was a little high on the BA and power and a little low on “batting eye”.
The average deviations in my picks for BA/OBP/SLG were 26.7/30.2/58.2 points.
If you eliminate David Ortiz (0 his 5BB, just 20AB) the deviations drop to 24.2/28.9/54.3.
The RMSE for BA/OBP/SLG was 40.47/38.7/80.3. Without David Ortiz, these errors dropped to 29.7/35.3/66.2, a little worse than last year’s study average, 28.7/31.4/60.0.
The errors for ISA (OBP-BA) and ISO (SLG-BA) were MSE: 17.0/40.3, RMSE: 23.1/50.7. Without David Ortiz, these drop to MSE: 16.1/38.9, RMSE:20.1/47.53. The average of the errors in BA,ISA,ISO was, for MSE: 26.4, for RMSE: 32.4. The MSE was slightly worse than the average 1998 study participant, the RMSE was slightly less than the average. Both were worse than the computer projections.
The errors in OPS were MSE: 81.9, RMSE: 111.7. Without Ortiz – MSE: 76.7, RMSE: 93.3.
I was surprised that I hit six battings averages on the nose, including three Rockies.
60 starting pitchers to project. What we’re asking for here is IP, ERA, K/9, BB/9 for each pitcher.
Kevin Brown 240 2.20 8.50 1.90 Carlos Perez 210 3.60 5.00 2.10 Chan Ho Park 240 3.50 8.00 4.00 Ismael Valdes 180 3.50 6.80 2.60 Shane Reynolds 210 3.70 7.50 2.00 Darryl Kile 260 5.40 6.00 3.70 Pedro Astacio 200 5.80 7.20 3.00 Denny Neagle 220 3.60 6.00 2.00 Pete Harnisch 180 4.00 6.00 2.90 Kirk Rueter 190 4.00 5.00 2.70 Mark Gardner 200 4.30 6.50 2.85 Andy Ashby 200 3.60 6.80 2.25 Sterling Hitchcock 200 4.50 7.20 2.80 Woody Williams 180 4.50 6.70 3.30 Jason Schmidt 220 4.20 6.50 3.20 Curt Schilling 260 3.40 9.40 2.00 Rick Reed 210 4.00 5.00 1.20 Bobby Jones 195 4.10 6.00 3.00 Al Leiter 180 3.20 8.00 4.00 Scott Karl 190 4.50 5.20 2.10 Kevin Tapani 200 5.00 5.50 2.70 Steve Traschel 200 4.50 6.00 3.20 Jon Lieber 180 4.50 7.00 2.00 Greg Maddux 240 2.20 7.00 1.50 Tom Glavine 230 3.00 5.75 2.85 John Smoltz 200 3.00 8.50 2.75 Andy Benes 230 4.00 6.40 3.00 Randy Johnson 250 3.00 12.30 2.90 Todd Stottlemyre 210 4.20 7.60 3.40 Omar Daal 60 4.50 6.50 3.50 Roger Clemens 270 2.80 10.00 3.50 Andy Pettite 220 3.80 6.00 3.30 David Cone 200 4.00 8.50 2.30 Wilson Alvarez 190 4.20 7.20 4.00 Aaron Sele 200 4.60 6.60 4.00 Mark Clark 210 4.10 6.00 2.20 Scott Erickson 220 5.00 4.80 2.30 Mike Mussina 210 3.60 6.60 2.00 Juan Guzman 200 4.50 7.00 4.00 Pedro Martinez 240 2.70 11.00 2.30 Tim Wakefield 210 4.50 6.10 3.60 Bret Saberhagen 160 4.40 5.00 1.50 Justin Thompson 200 4.50 5.70 3.60 Willie Blair 110 5.50 4.90 4.00 Bryce Florie 90 4.50 6.30 4.00 Brad Radke 220 4.50 6.00 1.80 Kenny Rogers 190 4.50 5.00 3.00 Tom Candiotti 180 5.20 6.00 1.75 John Burkett 190 5.00 6.00 2.30 Tim Belcher 180 5.00 4.20 2.80 Chuck Finley 200 4.60 7.90 4.30 Ken Hill 45 5.00 5.00 5.00 James Baldwin 180 4.20 6.50 3.40 Charles Nagy 170 5.60 4.20 2.50 Dave Burba 190 4.50 5.80 3.10 Dwight Gooden 110 4.00 5.50 4.00 Jeff Fassero 230 3.70 7.00 2.50 Jamie Moyer 150 4.00 5.50 1.50 Pat Hentgen 50 6.00 3.00 5.00 Joey Hamilton 205 4.70 5.00 4.20